Per the post, 2011 Annual Hotel Category Changes ~100 hotels will decrease a category and ~350 hotels will increase by a category. Less than 10% of the changes have been made to the Category 5-8 hotels.
If you can overlook some asumptions, then according to my calculations*, this is an equivalent reduction in points value of 2.39% accross the board. Here is what I think will be the new property categories (those in bold are for the 5-8 category changes spelled out in the article) - (see spreadsheet photo attached):
Estimated Loss in Points Value = 2.39%
Lastly, the statement, "Less than 10% of the changes have been made to the Category 5-8 hotels." is true as the number of properties starting out as a cat 5-8 was 508; only 50 changes to these categories were cited, hence <10% were affected. However, 16.19% of all cat 5-8 were affected post-recategorization.
For math enthusiasts: assuming all the cat 5-8 changes were cited, then 450 (100 down + 350 up) changes will happen to the "uncited" cats 1-4. Since cat 1 cannot decrease but only increase, the "going down" is zero. This leaves 100 decreases to spread over cat 2-4. Cat 2 was calculated using a weighted average as follows: 100 X 887/(887 + 1197 + 586) = 33 going down. Similarly, 350 increases to spread over cat 1-4 as follows: 350 X 887/(288 + 887 + 1197 + 586) = 105 going up.
To determine the "New #" value for cat 2 was to take the starting number less the change up and less the change down of Cat 2 plus the Cat 1s moving up plus the Cat 3s moving down or mathematically: 887 - 33 - 105 + 34 + 45 = 828.
To calculate affect on points value lost (assumes every hotel has a one-night stay to generate a statistical "population of means"): take each category's new # of properties X points/night (Tot Pts New in thousands) and starting number of properties X points/night (Tot Pts Old in thousands); tally New and divide by tally Old to yield 2.39% or mathematically: 55198 / 54610 = 102.39.
Pingreeman's "pain" - since I have 1,879,623 points banked, I've seen a loss of approximately 43,962 points, or easily a Cat 8 night or a 5 days' stay at a Cat 2.
that's a lot of analysis. thanks! by the way, you really shou;ld use some of those "banked" points. Every "genius " out there tells us to use points asap as they will NEVER be worth what they are today. so many of us think we should hold them for retirement. well, every program has fine print that says they can drop the program in the blink of an eye. not that they would........