15 Replies Latest reply: May 7, 2016 10:34 AM by homoviator RSS

how many nights up to now, and how many projected for 2016?

ramoneur Platinum
Currently Being Moderated

question is simple:

how many nights you have stayed for this cycle, 2016

and how many (X(now) * 366/Y(remaining) ) will be this be, projected for this year, without any bonusses etc.?

 

I have now (5 May 2016) 50 nights;

12 roll over

38 "real"

 

which means I will have projection of: 12 + 38 + (38 * 366/(31+29+31+30+5)) = 12 + 38 + 110 = 160 nights

 

my real expected number of nights will be:

12 + 38 + 9 (remaining business trip) + 4*2 (trip to Bachfest in June, with bonus) + 40*2 (about 40 nights for business trip + bonus) = 50 + 9 + 8 + 80 = 59 + 88 = 60 + 87 = 147 nights

(For each location tag, you will be guided through a 3-step process to add (1) a city and a state or a city and a country, (2) a Marriott brand, and (3) a Marriott hotel.)

  • Re: how many nights up to now, and how many projected for 2016?
    bejacob Platinum 38 Reviews
    Currently Being Moderated

    Oooh. Math (or is that maths?) homework. Fun!

     

    Let's see if I can follow your example.

     

    I have 59 nights (5/5/2016)

    19 roll over

    40 "real" of which 17 are promotional (from my CC, birthday, etc.) so let's call that 23 nights stayed.

     

    I'm going to modify your formula to make it simpler. 23 nights stayed in 4 months (January through April) is roughly 6 nights per month. That puts me on pace for 72 for the year, plus my 19 rollover and 17 promotional (so far). That would be 108. It's easy to see 4 more nights from the CC (probably more), so my projected nights would be at least 112.

     

    Hard to say what the real number will be. I've got 18 nights already booked through September. I'm sure there will be more. My best guess is another 15-20 (so let's call that 18 as well). CC nights will probably add about 4 or 5. So that means 59 + 18 + 18? + 5? = 100. That seems plausible based on where I am today.

     

    I'll be curious to see what the actual number turns out to be by the end of the year.

    (For each location tag, you will be guided through a 3-step process to add (1) a city and a state or a city and a country, (2) a Marriott brand, and (3) a Marriott hotel.)

  • Re: how many nights up to now, and how many projected for 2016?
    razorbackfan Alumni Steward Platinum 23 Reviews
    Currently Being Moderated

    Now I remember why I changed my major from math to education.....

    (For each location tag, you will be guided through a 3-step process to add (1) a city and a state or a city and a country, (2) a Marriott brand, and (3) a Marriott hotel.)

  • Re: how many nights up to now, and how many projected for 2016?
    iahflyr Platinum 26 Reviews
    Currently Being Moderated

    This is way to much stress on an old geezers mind and plus it is CINCO DE MAYO!!!

     

    I'll go along with the simple 18 nights so far in 2016, probably another 18 or so for a combined total of 36 (yes I had to take my flip flops off to count that high).

    (For each location tag, you will be guided through a 3-step process to add (1) a city and a state or a city and a country, (2) a Marriott brand, and (3) a Marriott hotel.)

  • Re: how many nights up to now, and how many projected for 2016?
    mustanggt Platinum
    Currently Being Moderated

    I can better answer this question on 12/31/16!

    (For each location tag, you will be guided through a 3-step process to add (1) a city and a state or a city and a country, (2) a Marriott brand, and (3) a Marriott hotel.)

  • Re: how many nights up to now, and how many projected for 2016?
    rlswider Platinum 7 Reviews
    Currently Being Moderated

    246 so far this year 178 rollover dropped down this year been in exec u stay so only 1 night credit for 3 nights stayed . On the good side I'm at the aruba surf club right now

    (For each location tag, you will be guided through a 3-step process to add (1) a city and a state or a city and a country, (2) a Marriott brand, and (3) a Marriott hotel.)

  • Re: how many nights up to now, and how many projected for 2016?
    brightlybob Platinum 10 Reviews
    Currently Being Moderated

    I believe ramoneur  that you've found an interesting equation here, but alas slightly flawed. We also need to try to work in the near 7 months double nights promo into the equation. I must admit, that made me think about my position as I'm now at 647 Lifetime nights and within sight of my 750 nights for LTP (passed the 2mill points about a year ago).

     

    So far I've stayed 24 nights, no rollovers, all stayed. My 10 credit card nights dont drop into my account till August.

     

    So my average projected is 24 * 366/(31+29+31+30+5) = 70 + 10(C/C) = 80.


    Adding in the nights already stayed as you've done in your equation ramoneur is a mathematical fallacy. The equation is as I've stated, and applying it to you should be:


    (50-12) * 366/(31+29+31+30+5) = 110 + 12 = 122 nights.


    By way of an easy cross-check apply bejacobs simple maths, namely you've already stayed 38 nights in 1/3rd of the year, so your average should be around 38x3=114+12=126. Not as precise as the formula but a straightforward cross-check for the equation exposing the fallacy of adding back the 38.


    But like me your actual average is going to be effected by the double nights promo which doubles only paid nights, so redemption nights count only once, so I need to strip out my average redemption nights from the double nights equation, thusly:


    Where


    A= Total nights

    B= Rollovers

    C= Redemptions

    D= Anniversary Credit Card nights to date

    E= Anniversary Credit card nights awaited


    A - (B+C+D) * 366/(31+29+31+30+5) * 2 + (B+C+D+E) - A


    So in my case with 24 total nights, no rollovers, 7 redemptions, no anniversary nights yet, but 10 awaited in August:-


    24 - (0+7+0) * 366/(31+29+31+30+5) * 2 + (0+7+0+10) - 24 = 92


    So the average taking into account double night promo is 92 which gives me 17 rollovers for 2017 and puts me very close to that 750 number... Woohoo!

    (For each location tag, you will be guided through a 3-step process to add (1) a city and a state or a city and a country, (2) a Marriott brand, and (3) a Marriott hotel.)

    • Re: how many nights up to now, and how many projected for 2016?
      ramoneur Platinum
      Currently Being Moderated

      thanks;

      I wrote the formula quickly and felt something was wrong;

      didn't have the time to go through it again ;-)

      thanks for the correction :-)

      (For each location tag, you will be guided through a 3-step process to add (1) a city and a state or a city and a country, (2) a Marriott brand, and (3) a Marriott hotel.)

      • Re: how many nights up to now, and how many projected for 2016?
        brightlybob Platinum 10 Reviews
        Currently Being Moderated

        Actually I did likewise on the formula relating to double nights which effectively doubled the 17 paid nights I've already undertaken, so I've had to amend my post to correct that.

         

        I enjoy maths (math) but it twists my brain!

        (For each location tag, you will be guided through a 3-step process to add (1) a city and a state or a city and a country, (2) a Marriott brand, and (3) a Marriott hotel.)

  • Re: how many nights up to now, and how many projected for 2016?
    painedplatinum Platinum 2 Reviews
    Currently Being Moderated

    Looking back to 2011 full years plus 2016 thru 4/30:

     

    201620152014201320122011
    Night Stays Base Earnings41,987201,965121,729157,08594,46682,339
    50% Elite Bonus20,996100,98760,87078,54647,23641,173
    Platinum Arrival Gift Pts5,70017,85011,10012,30012,00010,700
    Mega Bonus'35,000100,000145,000160,000100,000115,000
    Other Bonus'9,32544,6253,60034,50060,25014,300
    Credit Card Air/Car/Dine6,56723,68418,2638,8365,6954,159
    Credit Card Marriott29,86399,39477,72996,24763,00551,169
    Credit Card Non Marriott1,77715,57021,46921,05421,01815,684
    Total Earned151,215604,075459,760568,568403,670334,524
    Rewards Used70,000507,500350,000715,000340,000135,000
    Nights180268220203161114
    Year End Balance on Hand1,109,3731,028,158931,583821,823968,255904,585
    Rewards Nights Used10391921158
    plus flight

     

    2016 looks close to 2014 on paper thru 4/30 for point accumulation. Nights look to be significantly different because of rollovers.  I'll say 2016 ends with 150 nights stayed, 30 credit card, 1 birthday, 129 rollovers, total of 310

    (For each location tag, you will be guided through a 3-step process to add (1) a city and a state or a city and a country, (2) a Marriott brand, and (3) a Marriott hotel.)

  • Re: how many nights up to now, and how many projected for 2016?
    taxman193 Platinum 11 Reviews
    Currently Being Moderated

    So far .. 45 nights (21 rollover from last year) but I have a lot of trips coming up including 10 nights in the next two weeks and then another 10 nights in June and then 4 nights in July, 4 in August, 10 in September, 5 October and 10 in November assuming all trips go as planned.

    (For each location tag, you will be guided through a 3-step process to add (1) a city and a state or a city and a country, (2) a Marriott brand, and (3) a Marriott hotel.)

  • Re: how many nights up to now, and how many projected for 2016?
    homoviator Platinum
    Currently Being Moderated

    at 30 right now

    maybe 15 from rollover

    will get another 10 for credit card

    I will get about 10 over the summer

    and about another 20 this fall

    Platinum may be elusive for me this year.

    I never get my birthday night. Now I finally care.

    (For each location tag, you will be guided through a 3-step process to add (1) a city and a state or a city and a country, (2) a Marriott brand, and (3) a Marriott hotel.)

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