question is simple:
how many nights you have stayed for this cycle, 2016
and how many (X(now) * 366/Y(remaining) ) will be this be, projected for this year, without any bonusses etc.?
I have now (5 May 2016) 50 nights;
12 roll over
which means I will have projection of: 12 + 38 + (38 * 366/(31+29+31+30+5)) = 12 + 38 + 110 = 160 nights
my real expected number of nights will be:
12 + 38 + 9 (remaining business trip) + 4*2 (trip to Bachfest in June, with bonus) + 40*2 (about 40 nights for business trip + bonus) = 50 + 9 + 8 + 80 = 59 + 88 = 60 + 87 = 147 nights
Oooh. Math (or is that maths?) homework. Fun!
Let's see if I can follow your example.
I have 59 nights (5/5/2016)
19 roll over
40 "real" of which 17 are promotional (from my CC, birthday, etc.) so let's call that 23 nights stayed.
I'm going to modify your formula to make it simpler. 23 nights stayed in 4 months (January through April) is roughly 6 nights per month. That puts me on pace for 72 for the year, plus my 19 rollover and 17 promotional (so far). That would be 108. It's easy to see 4 more nights from the CC (probably more), so my projected nights would be at least 112.
Hard to say what the real number will be. I've got 18 nights already booked through September. I'm sure there will be more. My best guess is another 15-20 (so let's call that 18 as well). CC nights will probably add about 4 or 5. So that means 59 + 18 + 18? + 5? = 100. That seems plausible based on where I am today.
I'll be curious to see what the actual number turns out to be by the end of the year.
I believe ramoneur that you've found an interesting equation here, but alas slightly flawed. We also need to try to work in the near 7 months double nights promo into the equation. I must admit, that made me think about my position as I'm now at 647 Lifetime nights and within sight of my 750 nights for LTP (passed the 2mill points about a year ago).
So far I've stayed 24 nights, no rollovers, all stayed. My 10 credit card nights dont drop into my account till August.
So my average projected is 24 * 366/(31+29+31+30+5) = 70 + 10(C/C) = 80.
Adding in the nights already stayed as you've done in your equation ramoneur is a mathematical fallacy. The equation is as I've stated, and applying it to you should be:
(50-12) * 366/(31+29+31+30+5) = 110 + 12 = 122 nights.
By way of an easy cross-check apply bejacobs simple maths, namely you've already stayed 38 nights in 1/3rd of the year, so your average should be around 38x3=114+12=126. Not as precise as the formula but a straightforward cross-check for the equation exposing the fallacy of adding back the 38.
But like me your actual average is going to be effected by the double nights promo which doubles only paid nights, so redemption nights count only once, so I need to strip out my average redemption nights from the double nights equation, thusly:
A= Total nights
D= Anniversary Credit Card nights to date
E= Anniversary Credit card nights awaited
A - (B+C+D) * 366/(31+29+31+30+5) * 2 + (B+C+D+E) - A
So in my case with 24 total nights, no rollovers, 7 redemptions, no anniversary nights yet, but 10 awaited in August:-
24 - (0+7+0) * 366/(31+29+31+30+5) * 2 + (0+7+0+10) - 24 = 92
So the average taking into account double night promo is 92 which gives me 17 rollovers for 2017 and puts me very close to that 750 number... Woohoo!
Looking back to 2011 full years plus 2016 thru 4/30:
|Night Stays Base Earnings||41,987||201,965||121,729||157,085||94,466||82,339|
|50% Elite Bonus||20,996||100,987||60,870||78,546||47,236||41,173|
|Platinum Arrival Gift Pts||5,700||17,850||11,100||12,300||12,000||10,700|
|Credit Card Air/Car/Dine||6,567||23,684||18,263||8,836||5,695||4,159|
|Credit Card Marriott||29,863||99,394||77,729||96,247||63,005||51,169|
|Credit Card Non Marriott||1,777||15,570||21,469||21,054||21,018||15,684|
|Year End Balance on Hand||1,109,373||1,028,158||931,583||821,823||968,255||904,585|
|Rewards Nights Used||10||39||19||21||15||8|
2016 looks close to 2014 on paper thru 4/30 for point accumulation. Nights look to be significantly different because of rollovers. I'll say 2016 ends with 150 nights stayed, 30 credit card, 1 birthday, 129 rollovers, total of 310
Nice summary indeed painedplatinum, astonishing numbers you clock up, even after burning over 2million points in 5 years (the amount required for Lifetime Plat), you've still over a million left. And over that same 5-year period you clocked up almost 1,000 nights credit. I've always said homes are over-rated, who needs a home, eh?
So far .. 45 nights (21 rollover from last year) but I have a lot of trips coming up including 10 nights in the next two weeks and then another 10 nights in June and then 4 nights in July, 4 in August, 10 in September, 5 October and 10 in November assuming all trips go as planned.